"Does Saddam's capture make Bush's re-election a sure thing?" This seems to be the question everybody is asking since we arrested the former Iraqi leader (looking very much like a drunken Santa Claus). The implication is that the answer is "yes" - may as well forget the election; Bush caught the bad guy, give him four more years to catch the other bad guy (remember Osama?)
I disagree. If the election were to be held next week, then this would guarantee four more years. But a lot can happen in 11 months. More importantly, there's a lot that probably won't happen. For example; the killing of American soldiers on a regular basis probably won't stop just because Saddam is gone. Another example; we probably won't have completely pulled out from Iraq.
Now that Saddam is out of the way - and because Bush put such an emphasis on the importance of that one man - the public is going to get more and more restless with each passing day that their sons and daughters are being fired upon in a foreign land, long after we've "freed" them. G.W. won't have Saddam Hussein to kick around anymore. So what excuse will he have to use to continue to justify our presence in Iraq?